The hottest three minutes to see the financial rep

Three minutes to see the financial report ｜ Shanghai Electric split at "tuyere", the listing valuation of offshore wind power leading scientific and technological innovation board may exceed 10 billion

original title: three minutes to see the financial report ｜ Shanghai Electric split at "tuyere", the listing valuation of offshore wind power leading scientific and technological Innovation Board may exceed 10 billion source: interface

| Cao Li

| Chen Feiya

Shanghai Electric () The split of finally landed

source: announcement, interface research department

Shanghai Electric hopes to expand and strengthen the wind power sector through this spin off. Investors can find the hidden value of Shanghai Electric and its wind power business through this spin off

wind power generally includes three main components: fan, blade and tower. Fan is the core component and the main product of Shanghai electric wind power. It covers a full range of units from 1.25mw to 8mW, basically realizing full power coverage

source: according to the application scenarios, the wind turbine products of the official and interface research department can be divided into land and sea. Due to the more complex meteorological environment, the requirements for wind turbines are higher and the corresponding prices are higher at sea, which are high-end products

offshore is the advantageous area of Shanghai electric wind power. According to the 2018 statistical briefing on China's wind power hoisting capacity, a total of 7 complete machine manufacturing enterprises added offshore installed capacity in 2018, of which Shanghai electric wind power was the largest, with a total of 181 units, with a capacity of 726mw, accounting for 43.9%

globally, Shanghai electric wind power (sewind in the figure below) ranks third in the field of offshore wind power, followed by wind power giants Siemens and Vestas

source: Bloomberg, interface research department

if the total amount of onshore and offshore wind power is calculated, the overall scale of Shanghai electric wind power is still far from that of Goldwind Technology (), vision energy and other companies

the formation of such a pattern is related to the late entry of Shanghai Electric into the wind power industry

in 2006, Shanghai Electric established wind power equipment Co., Ltd. and officially entered the field of new energy. The industry leader Goldwind technology was established as early as 1998 and has been listed in 2007. If Shanghai Electric focused on land, it would face fierce competition. It was a more rational choice to turn to the offshore market, where domestic enterprises were less involved at that time

like many other enterprises in developing new markets, Shanghai Electric initially adopted the strategy of license production and introduced mature models from German dewind, aerodyn and Siemens. After several years of accumulation, the company turned to the joint design stage and jointly developed models with higher environmental adaptability with foreign enterprises according to the characteristics of China's wind conditions. The fatigue testing machine is used to test the fatigue characteristics, fatigue life, prefabricated cracks and crack expansion of metals, alloy materials and their components under tensile, compressive or tensile and compressive alternating loads at room temperature. On this basis, the company has gradually developed a strong independent research and development ability. In 2015, Shanghai Electric established Shanghai electric wind power with the original wind power equipment company as the core, and is committed to becoming a full life cycle service provider of wind power

from the history of offshore wind power equipment, the domestic offshore wind power hoisting capacity was relatively low before 2015, and the annual new installed capacity was less than 400MW, which was only equivalent to the capacity of a large-scale offshore project. Most complete machine manufacturers mainly focus on the hoisting of test prototypes, and have not formed the mass production and sales of offshore products. In 2016, China's offshore installed capacity exceeded 500wm for the first time, reaching 592mw, and the offshore wind power industry gradually formed a scale

at present, offshore wind power has become the key direction of China's wind power development in the future. Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian and other coastal areas have a good economic development situation. They are China's main power load centers, and also the region with the most abundant offshore wind power resources. They have the consumption advantage that the supply of wind energy resources is highly matched with the needs of market analysts of PricewaterhouseCoopers global polyurethane network

Guosen Securities predicts that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power will increase by more than 30% annually in the next few years. By 2021, the new installed capacity of offshore wind power is expected to reach 4gw

Shanghai electric wind power is undoubtedly located in the huge tuyere of offshore wind power

the valuation is expected to exceed 10 billion

according to the announcement, Shanghai electric wind power achieved net profits of 21.19 million yuan, -52.31 million yuan and 101 million yuan in 2017, 2018 and the first three quarters of 2019, respectively. Due to losses in 2018, the company does not meet the conditions for listing on the main board, and the science and technology innovation board is more suitable for the company

source: announcement, interface research department

compared with the five standards for the listing of science and technology innovation board, such as the lower power tensile testing machine, since Shanghai electric wind power has not received the investment of "well-known investment institutions" specified in Article 5, it may refer to the fourth standard, that is, the estimated market value is not less than 3 billion yuan, and the revenue in the recent year is not less than 300 million yuan

since Shanghai electric wind power has not formed a stable profit, and its offshore wind power based business structure is better than that of currently listed companies such as Goldwind technology and Mingyang intelligent (), we can generally form such a judgment that the P/E ratio may not be appropriate, and the P/B or P/L ratio is more appropriate, and the valuation level can be slightly higher than that of Goldwind technology and other companies

the comparable companies of Shanghai electric wind power in A-share are Goldwind technology and Mingyang intelligent. As of January 6, 2020, their market to sales ratios were 1.52 and 1.87 times, and their market to book ratios were 1.95 and 2.92 times, respectively

source: wind, interface research department

considering that the science and technology innovation board and secondary new shares currently enjoy a certain premium, more reference can be made to secondary new shares Mingyang intelligence in terms of valuation. If a 20% premium is given to Shanghai electric wind power on the basis of Mingyang intelligent, the corresponding market sales ratio and market book value ratio are 2.2 times and 3.5 times respectively

the revenue of Shanghai electric wind power in the first three quarters was 4.9 billion yuan. Assuming that the fourth quarter was slightly higher than the average level of the first three quarters, the revenue of Shanghai electric wind power in 2019 is expected to be at least 7 billion yuan, which is 15.4 billion yuan calculated by 2.2 times the market sales rate. Based on the net assets of 3.7 billion yuan and 3.5 times the price to book ratio, the market value is 13billion yuan

therefore, we generally estimate that the market value of Shanghai electric wind power is expected to reach 13 billion yuan to 15.4 billion yuan after its listing

it is worth noting that before the spin off, the contribution of Shanghai Electric's wind power business to the market value of its parent company may be very limited. In 2018, the business lost 52.31 million yuan, while Shanghai Electric's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2018 was 3 billion yuan. If Shanghai Electric is valued according to the method that the P/e party is responsible for him or her and is responsible for Jinan assay, the wind power business is almost invisible

according to the price of Shanghai Electric in Hong Kong, its corresponding market value is 36billion yuan, and the corresponding market value of A-share is 76.6 billion yuan. Now, if a company with little profit is dismantled, the valuation can exceed 10 billion

whether the market will rediscover the value of Shanghai Electric remains for investors to think