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Review; The world plastic market (Part 1)

the difficulties experienced by the world petrochemical industry in 2001 were more severe than those in 1998, which was the lowest level in history. Although Asia suffered from the economic crisis in 1998, the U.S. economy has maintained a strong momentum of development. However, the situation in 2001 was that the economic growth of the three world economic powers, the United States, Europe and Japan, slowed down or declined synchronously, which was an economic phenomenon that had not occurred for many years. In particular, the serious contraction of imports from the United States has sharply reduced the export of electronic products from Asian countries and regions to the United States, losing the driving force of economic growth relative to the sharp growth in 2012. The economic downturn has seriously affected the demand for petrochemical products. In 2001, the global demand for ethylene fell for the first time since 1982, and the demand growth of polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in the world was also much lower than expected

I. supply and demand overview

from the perspective of the global polyolefin supply and demand balance, the production capacity is seriously surplus, and the overall supply exceeds demand. In 2000, the global PE production capacity was 61.69 million T/A, the demand was 48.45 million T, and the surplus was 13.23 million T; PP capacity is about 34.96 million t/a, and the demand is about 29.29 million T; The crushing process of PVC and PS resin production in the world not only produces a large number of dust particles, but also has sufficient capacity, and the supply and demand are basically in a balanced state. In 2000, the PVC production capacity was 31.29 million T/A, the output reached 2, the benefit was 6 million T, and the demand was 26.29 million T; PS has a capacity of 16million T/A, an output of 13.1 million T, and a consumption of 13.51 million T; The production capacity of ABS resin is 6.07 million. Beijing mobike Technology Co., Ltd. and Dow Chemical (China) Investment Co., Ltd. signed a memorandum of understanding on strategic partnership t/a, with an output of 4.46 million tons, a demand of 4.65 million tons and an operating rate of 73%. By 2001, the new polyethylene production capacity in Asia had increased significantly, reaching 18.26 million T/A, an increase of 7.6% over 2000, while the operating rate fell to 78%. The overcapacity of polyolefin in the world is further aggravated, and the polyethylene production capacity has reached 65.5 million T/A

according to statistics, the newly increased polyethylene production capacity recently includes 480000 t/a linear low-density polyethylene from ExxonMobil in Singapore, 200000 t/a high-pressure polyethylene and 200000 t/a low-pressure polyethylene from Formosa Plastics Liuqing, 200000 t/a low-pressure polyethylene from Dow Chemical in the United States, plus the new polyethylene production capacity before the end of the year, such as 200000 t/a high-pressure polyethylene and 200000 t/a low-pressure polyethylene from Qatar in the Middle East, Yanpet in Saudi Arabia added 500000 T/a of linear low-density polyethylene and kemya added 200000 t/a of high-pressure polyethylene/linear low-density polyethylene respectively. According to statistics, the new capacity of polyethylene in the Far East has exceeded 2million T/A in the past two years

Second, the latest market dynamics

after the plastic market bottomed out at the end of last year, many manufacturers were unable to bear losses and reduced production, and the output suddenly plummeted. By the end of February and the beginning of March this year, the inquiry increased sharply, the transaction resumed rapidly, and downstream manufacturers raised materials one after another to make up the inventory. The market transaction became increasingly active, and the price began to rise sharply. With the continuous improvement of the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, the increase of users' gas entering the market, the effective demand continues to expand, and the continuous participation of small and medium-sized traders has promoted the rise of the trading market and changed the market fundamentals. In particular, the oil price in the international market has been rising recently. Recently, the Brent oil price rose to $27/barrel, a new high in recent months, which strongly supports the stability and strength of the plastic market price. So far, the whole plastic market has shown a strong upward trend. (to be continued)

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